Black Friday Affiliate Predictions: Key Trends and Insights

As Black Friday 2024 approaches, retailers and affiliates alike are eager to capitalize on the year’s biggest shopping day. As you know, affiliate marketing is always looking in the same direction as e-commerce, so no wonder now it’s the high time for you, affiliate, to get prepared!

Recent data reveals trends that highlight shifting consumer behavior, with a focus on convenience, early shopping, mobile optimization, and sustainability.

Understanding these trends will help you stay ahead of the competition, engage users effectively, and ultimately boost affiliate sales. Here’s a detailed breakdown of what to expect for Black Friday 2024 in the US and Europe, along with strategies to help you succeed and essential stats. 

Trends for Black Friday 2024

1. Early Shopping Frenzy: Capitalizing on the Extended Black Friday Season

Consumers are shopping earlier than ever, with nearly half starting their Black Friday searches in early November, according to last year’s data. This trend is expected to grow in 2024 as customers aim to secure the best deals ahead of time, motivated by fear of missing out on hot-ticket items. For affiliates, this means preparing and promoting early bird offers to capture attention as soon as November begins.

Strategies to Implement:

• Launch Early Bird Campaigns: Consider starting Black Friday offers early in the beginning of November. You can promote “Countdown to Black Friday” events with exclusive early discounts to encourage early engagement.
• Build Momentum with Email Marketing: Start by sending teaser emails about upcoming Black Friday deals. Highlight early access, first-come-first-serve deals, or rewards for subscribers to increase interest.

By tapping into early shopping behavior, affiliates can draw in budget-conscious consumers eager to avoid the last-minute rush, boosting early revenue.

2. The Dominance of Mobile Shopping

Mobile shopping showed strong growth in 2023, with 69% of global Black Friday traffic occurring on mobile devices. This number is projected to increase in 2024, solidifying mobile as the primary shopping channel for Black Friday. A smooth, user-friendly mobile experience is critical to keeping customers engaged. Every step of the mobile experience, from browsing to checkout, needs to be seamless to prevent cart abandonment.

Strategies to Implement:

• Optimize Mobile Loading Speed: Slow load times are a top reason for cart abandonment. Ensure images and videos are optimized for mobile to keep load times under three seconds.
• Simplify Checkout: Offer one-click checkout options or allow digital wallets (e.g., Apple Pay, Google Pay) to streamline the payment process.
• Push Notifications: Use push notifications to notify users of new deals or remind them of items left in their cart. These alerts can keep your brand top-of-mind and drive users back to your app or mobile site.

Mobile shopping continues to grow in popularity because of its convenience. Brands that prioritize mobile experiences will be well-positioned to capture a larger share of Black Friday traffic and conversions.

3. Demand for Deep Discounts and Value for Money

In recent years, economic uncertainty has led consumers to become more price-sensitive, and 2024 is no exception. Black Friday shoppers expect steep discounts, especially in high-demand categories like electronics, fashion, and home goods. Highlighting value-for-money deals will be essential to attract budget-conscious consumers.

Strategies to Implement:

• Highlight High-Value Discounts: Showcase the most attractive discounts on your homepage, emails, and social media ads. Emphasize the savings percentage, such as “Up to 50% off electronics,” to draw attention.
• Bundle Deals: Highlight bundles to add perceived value without slashing individual product prices. For example, “Buy a TV and get 30% off a soundbar” or “Purchase three skincare products and save 20%.”
• Flash Sales and Limited-Time Offers: Implement flash sales with limited quantities to create urgency. For affiliates, consider promoting time-sensitive offers to capture the interest of fast-acting shoppers.

4. Increased Engagement on Social Media Platforms

Social media platforms continue to play an instrumental role in holiday shopping, with consumers increasingly discovering Black Friday deals on platforms like Instagram, TikTok, and Facebook. These channels provide a space to connect with audiences in a more interactive, visual, and engaging way, especially with younger generations that turn to social media for shopping inspiration.

Strategies to Implement:

• Use Video Content: Post video content to generate interest. Reels, Stories, and TikTok videos are great ways to showcase your products in action.

Social media not only drives awareness but can also create a more personal shopping experience, making it a critical element of Black Friday campaigns.

5. Sustainability Takes Center Stage

Sustainability has become a growing priority for consumers, especially during events like Black Friday when mass consumption is at its peak. More shoppers are looking for eco-friendly products and brands that emphasize sustainable practices. This awareness has sparked a shift in how brands approach Black Friday, with some offering eco-conscious options that resonate with environmentally aware customers.

Strategies to Implement:

• Highlight Sustainable Products: For instance, products with sustainable materials or packaging in your promotions.

Sustainability is not only a valuable message to convey but can also be a differentiator, helping brands attract and retain customers who prioritize environmental impact.

Essential stats for Black Friday in the US

Retrospective glance at 2023

• Black Friday remained the top choice for online shopping in 2023, with 90.6 million U.S. consumers making purchases, marking a 3.9% increase from 87.2 million in 2022. 
• Cyber Week saw record participation, with 200.4 million shoppers, surpassing the previous year by 1.9%. 
• Online shopping attracted 134.2 million consumers during this period, a 3% increase from the prior year.
• 68% of consumers intended to shop online specifically for Black Friday. 
• The preferred shopping spots during Cyber Week included:

• Online platforms (44%)
• Grocery and supermarkets (42%)
• Department stores (40%)
• Clothing and accessories stores (36%)
• Electronics retailers (29%)

Black Friday top product categories

• TVs;
• Consoles ans video games;
• Robot vacuum cleaners;
• Smart speakers;
• Barstools;
• Pajamas;
• Skin care products; 
• Barbie and related products. 

5 categories of products were purchased the most: 

• Electronics – $50.8 billion;
• Apparel – $41.5 billion;
• Furniture – $27.3 billion;
• Groceries – $19.1 billion;
• Toys -$7.7 billion.

Among popular gifts there were:

• Clothing and accessories; 
• Gift cards; 
• Books, video games; 
• Beauty items;

Holiday Season 2024: Predictions and Forecasts

• Predicted Growth: holiday shopping will increase between 2.5-3.5% year-over-year (YoY) in 2024, bringing total spending to around $985 billion.
• Online Spending Spike: Online shopping is set to grow by 8-9% YoY, reaching approximately $296 billion. Adobe projects that online spending will reach a record-breaking $241 billion across the holiday season, an 8.4% increase from last year.
• Mobile Shopping Surge: Shoppers are increasingly turning to mobile devices, with mobile-driven spending expected to contribute $128 billion – a 12.8% YoY increase.

• Cyber Monday Dominance: Adobe anticipates Cyber Monday will lead the season’s shopping events with an estimated 6.1% YoY growth, reaching $13.2 billion.
• Black Friday’s Popularity: Black Friday is expected to see robust growth, projected to rise 9.9% YoY and reach $10.8 billion in online sales.
• Discount Trends: Discounts during the season are expected to peak at 30% off listed prices, a slight dip from 31% in 2023.

Top Product Categories

• Electronics, Apparel, and Home Goods: These three categories will drive over half of holiday spending:
  • Electronics: Expected to grow 8.5% YoY to $55.1 billion.
  • Apparel: Predicted to increase 5.8% YoY to $43.9 billion.
  • Furniture/Bedding: Projected at $28.4 billion, marking a 4.2% YoY growth.

Average Spending and Consumer Intentions

• Holiday Budget Increase: Shoppers are expected to spend around $1,778 on holiday expenses.
• Gift and Non-Gift Spending: While spending on gifts may remain stable, non-gift purchases are seeing a 9% increase as consumers indulge in holiday-related items for themselves.
• Holiday Spending Start Times: 32% of shoppers have already started holiday shopping by October, while 52% plan to wrap up after Thanksgiving.

Economic Concerns & Consumer Sentiment

• Financial Strain: 57% of consumers feel financially strained heading into the holiday season, with only 14% intending to spend more in 2024 compared to last year.
• Frugality on the Rise: Signs of budget-conscious behavior are prominent, with 48% planning to shop at more affordable retailers, 62% opting for lower-priced brands, and 25% considering “dupe” or knockoff items.
• Shift to Resale Goods: Buying pre-owned or resale items has become increasingly popular, with 45% of consumers choosing this option, up from 38% last year.

Holiday Shopping by Demographic

• Gen Z’s Rising Influence: Gen Z’s holiday spending has risen 59% over the last two years, while millennials’ spending has grown 22% in the same period.
• Experiential Gifts on the Rise: Four in ten consumers plan to focus on experience-based gifts rather than physical products.
• Gen Z and Millennials’ Preferences: These younger consumers are expected to shop primarily via mobile apps, with 64% preferring gifts that support social or environmental causes.

Shopping Channels & Payment Trends

• Online and In-Store Shopping Balance: Despite the rise in online shopping, 60% of consumers still plan to shop in physical stores. Baby boomers lean toward in-store shopping, while Gen Z and millennials prefer mobile apps.
• Debit Cards Dominant: 65% of consumers are expected to use debit cards for purchases, continuing their preference for immediate payments.
• Multichannel Shopping: 71% of consumers plan to shop across two or more channels, with a mix of online, in-store, and app-based shopping options.

Influence of Social Media and AI

• Social Media’s Expanding Role: 81% of consumers are using social media to inform their holiday purchases, a significant increase from last year.
• Generative AI in Decision-Making: 50% of Gen Z now use AI tools to help make purchasing decisions, showing how tech-savvy younger consumers rely on emerging tools in e-commerce. This rate is much higher than among baby boomers, where only 29% leverage AI.

Consumer Trends: Gift Preferences and Loyalty Risks

• Quality and Value as Priorities: This year, shoppers are prioritizing quality (39%), value (37%), and variety (35%) in their purchases.
• Loyalty Shifts: Many consumers are reconsidering brand loyalty, with almost 48% willing to explore more affordable options, and 62% leaning towards budget-friendly brands.

Predictions for Black Friday Shopping Behavior

• Participation Rates: 68% of shoppers are expected to participate in Thanksgiving week sales, with a higher intent seen among Gen Z and millennials.
• Self-Gifting Trends: Self-gifting is on the rise, with 83% of consumers planning to buy something for themselves this season, up from 76% in 2023.
• Experiences Over Physical Gifts: Spending on experiences like dining, travel, and entertainment is projected to grow by 16% YoY, reflecting a continued preference for experience-based holiday gifting.

Spending on Gifts, Travel, and Entertainment

• Consumers are set to spend an average of $1,638 on gifts, travel, and entertainment, a 7% increase over last year and a 15% jump from 2022.
• 29% of consumers say they plan to spend less in 2024 than they did in 2023, up 10% from last year.

Sources: Adobe Analytics, Adobe News, NRF Winter Holidays Research 2024, NRF Winter Holidays Research 2023, Gartner, Deloitte Surveys, PWC. 

Essential stats for Black Friday in Europe based on 2023 Shopping Season

Source: Klaviyo

Preparing for Black Friday 2024: Final Thoughts

This year’s Black Friday promises to be a bustling period, with early shopping trends, mobile dominance, and sustainability taking the forefront. By anticipating these behaviors and optimizing your approach, you can maximize sales and build strong customer relationships. Make sure to monitor performance throughout the Black Friday period and adjust strategies as needed to capitalize on last-minute trends. With thorough preparation and data-driven insights, you’re set to make Black Friday 2024 a success.

Stay tuned for our Black Friday landing page with the best affiliate programs for the hottest shopping season! We will announce it here in our blog and on our Facebook page.

Now is the best time to become an affiliate at Indoleads and select the offers from our catalogue with over 3000 affiliate programs!